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NTDOY, DIS, ATVI...
7/16/2019 12:07pm
Game On: Wedbush upgrades Nintendo after Switch Lite reveal

NEW RELEASES: This week's major game release is "Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: The Black Order," developed by Team Ninja and published by Nintendo (NTDOY), which rolls out this Friday exclusively for the Nintendo Switch. The action role-playing game includes an original story involving a multitude of characters for Marvel's (DIS) superhero universe, including the Avengers, Spider-Man, and the X-Men.

SWITCH LITE: Last Wednesday, Nintendo unveiled the Switch Lite, a smaller and exclusively handheld edition of its Switch console, the original version of which could shift between handheld mode and TV mode. The Switch Lite system launches September 20 at a suggested retail price of $199.99 and will be compatible with all the same games that the original Switch is. As of mid-May of this year, the Nintendo Switch had sold just under 35M units worldwide since its launch in March of 2017, according to Forbes.

Following the announcement, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter upgraded Nintendo to Outperform from Neutral as he expects the introduction of the new smaller console to drive hardware ad software sales well above 2020 guidance and maintain the game maker's positive momentum into 2021. Pachter also cited increased optimism about the Switch's future success, as well as the release of mobile title "Mario Kart Tour" this summer, which could also act as a positive catalyst for shares.

TWITCHADVISER: In a research note to investors issued Tuesday, Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson said his firm's second quarter "TwitchAdviser," an analyst of video game viewing data, is most favorable for Activision Blizzard (ATVI), with additional positive takeaways for Take-Two Interactive (TTWO). Olson noted that Activision viewership is up 15% quarter-over-quarter, versus the analyst's previous estimate for a 3$ digital revenue decline, excluding King. Take-Two viewing jumped 149% quarter-over-quarter versus the analyst's estimate for a 26% decline in recurring revenue. That great an uptick in viewership is unlikely to result in a recurrent revenue increase of similar magnitude, given much of the viewing for "Grand Theft Auto Online" is driven by un-monetized modding, Olson said. EA's (EA) "Apex Legends" was among the top movers, the analyst added, but this time on a downward trajectory. Olson kept Overweight ratings on all three names.

APEX ENGAGEMENT: Meanwhile, Piper's Olson said in a research note last week that shares of Electronic Arts have dipped roughly 10% since the new content for "Apex Legends" was made available on July 2. The analyst added, however, that player engagement, as measured by Twitch viewership, has been largely in-line with expectations and increases confidence in the company's ability to hit the guidance range of $300M-$400M for "Apex Legends" in fiscal 2020. Olson said he believes management's overall fiscal 2020 outlook seems "somewhat conservative, with limited downside risk to any major components."

OTHER STORIES TO WATCH:

  • Activision announced last week that it will reveal the multiplayer universe of "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare" on Thursday, August 1.
  • Last Thursday, The Information reported that Facebook (FB) is eyeing acquisitions of game studios and inking exclusive deals for virtual reality versions of well-known games to bolster its Oculus VR headset business. As part of the new effort, the social media giant has already signed deals for exclusive VR editions of Ubisoft's (UBSFY) "Assassin's Creed" and "Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell," according to The Information's Alex Heath.
  • Meanwhile, Jefferies upgraded Ubisoft to Buy from Hold yesterday and raised its price target for the shares to EUR85 from EUR75.

"Game On" is The Fly's weekly recap of the stories powering up or beating down video game stocks.

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